I so hope you're right, but I think this firmly falls into the "This time it's different category". Each bubble has people saying this for various different reasons. I upvoted but disagree because no amount of explanation will make me digest a 50 billion dollar valuation for facebook. I think people just got used to big numbers because of all the bailouts that happened last year.
It's good atleast that people are talking about this though. I wonder how much discussion there was about a possible bubble in 99.
But are the odd billion dollar valuations outliers or representative? How many profitable tech startups are they surrounded by? Is the support for those profits sustainable?
In terms of what makes me feel like we're in a pattern that is similar to '97-'00 it isn't just the very large valuation companies, in fact that isn't much of it at all to me.
It seems to be across the entire spectrum - VC's showing up to initial meetings with term sheets, higher initial valuations, very young companies being sold for high amounts, lots of rather underwhelming products/models, accelerating valuation increases and a public and press fascination with the sector.
I'm not saying that's conclusive proof at all, but many behaviors seem very familiar.
We could be seeing an aftershock from the last one. It seems like a lot of VCs either are or are working with people who cashed out near the high point of the boom.
Precisely: the people insisting that we're in yet another bubble cannot make the distinction between anecdotal and representative companies. Yes, there a handful of companies that may be overvalued. That is not going to take down the economy, no matter what happens. If you think it is: you either weren't around for the real bubble, or you weren't paying attention.
It's good atleast that people are talking about this though. I wonder how much discussion there was about a possible bubble in 99.