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The threat most developers should be concerned about is what happens once a major solar flare (like the Carrington event in 1859) shows up. That is destined to happen at some point, and not unlikely within the next few decades. Hard to predict the fallout for the internet and other technical infastructure more broadly, but I'm guessing it won't be pretty.


Interestingly after reading a bit of the Wikipedia article on that event the Earth apparently missed experiencing another solar storm of equivalent strength in 2012[1] by just a number of days.

Estimates in the linked article expect had it been facing Earth at the time the recovery would have taken 4-10 years.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2012_solar_storm


I'm interested in where you feel the numerical value of "not unlikely" falls on a scale such as the one from Lesson 1 of this article.

https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...


https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.118...

This recent paper from Japan estimates the following likelihood for what it calls "extremely large solar flares":

> for 30-, 50-, and 100-year periods to be 0.70−0.76, 0.87−0.91, and 0.98−0.99, respectively


Perfect, thank you!

I find much more value in numerical expression when it comes to topics about future events than the fuzzy and loaded English terms we tend to use in casual conversation. I had the wrong impression about your previous message based on my own preconceived notions, and numbers reduce all that.


No problem, I should have been more specific when I wrote my initial comment but I was too lazy to pull up the exact reference until you challenged me (I somewhat randomly saw this paper a few days ago, initially).




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