HSR is doing a fine job subverting itself. Even if it completes in the optimistic case of 20 years, autonomous electric vehicles are likely to be mainstream. Some possibility of electric planes capable of the SFO/LAX route. With CA's push to renewables and electric vehicles, CO2 differences aren't likely to matter.
HSR will be the slower, lower end, option at a higher price just like Amtrak is now.
I think it's fine to doubt whether HSR will exist. But if the plans are built as designed it will take about three hours from San Francisco to LA: it's hard to imagine any autonomous vehicle matching that speed. Similarly, the problem with flying from SF to LA isn't the choice of plane fueling, it's the hassle of going to the airport and passing through security.
Even eliminating the security and the getting to the airport, there's still the wait to check a bag if you have to check one, the wait to board the plane, the need to be on the plane 15 mins before takeoff or they seal the doors, the wait for everyone to get their stuff out of the overhead when the plane lands, then if you are checking a bag, at the end the wait to get your bag again if it shows up at all. Not to mention it could all go south at any moment, maybe the plane lands at LAX, but then an LAX happens and the pilot says there isn't a gate yet so you twiddle your thumbs on the tarmac for another 45 mins. Oh and then the fact that no airline wants to be straight with you with ticket pricing being dynamic and the whole experience of trying to time buying your ticket at the proper time. Its like they've all taken a playbook from ticketmaster, or maybe satan.
I think its even more optimistic to assume autonomous vehicles are likely to be mainstream, much less in 20 years. They don't even exist yet, meanwhile high speed trains are proven 70 year old technology. Electric cars have been out for over 10 years now and they aren't even taking over.
HSR is doing a fine job subverting itself. Even if it completes in the optimistic case of 20 years, autonomous electric vehicles are likely to be mainstream. Some possibility of electric planes capable of the SFO/LAX route. With CA's push to renewables and electric vehicles, CO2 differences aren't likely to matter.
HSR will be the slower, lower end, option at a higher price just like Amtrak is now.