"If I had at least one or two offers I might believe them, but can the system be so wrong as to consistently overlook a good developer even if they are bad at interviews?"
This. Interviewing is a COMPLETELY different game in the tech industry. Some people spend a lot of time and are very good at this game.
Also my naïve impression is that the market is pretty flooded right now with candidates with impressive-looking credentials (i.e. ex-FAANG employees) from numerous large layoffs, so I wouldn't be surprised if getting a job right now is more challenging than it was a year ago. I have heard anecdotally though that there's still abundant opportunity, but I'm not sure how that nets out. Maybe it just means that the top tier, most desirable jobs are super hard to get right now, but everything below that is pretty much the same? I'd be curious to hear other folks experiences.
The mistake is to assume that the interview process is “overlooking a good developer”
Interviews aren’t about accepting the first candidate who is qualified enough. Interviews are about interviewing a number of the best applicants and choosing the best one for the job.
You can be a great candidate, but if someone else is an even better candidate then you’re not getting the offer (unless the better candidate declines).
We really need to break this myth that interviews are a 1:1 challenge between the company and a single candidate.
Exactly. I've had interviews I've conducted where we had one open position, and ended up between a couple good candidates. I would have been fine hiring any of them, but we only needed one person, so we selected the one that felt like the best skills fit for exactly what we needed.
I've also had companies be open about it the other way - they liked me a lot, I had most of the experience they were looking for, but someone else came along and had all of the boxes checked for them, and thus would probably be able to require a lot less ramp-up time than I would, even if we would have probably both been fine in the role within 6 months. I can't blame them for that.
Another perspective is that interviews can also be about avoiding anyone that might be a bad developer. If you have a large pool of applicants, it's "safe" to basically reject by default and only proceed with a select few who seem like the best (along whatever axis is important). You might miss out on a really good employee, but you're also less likely to be saddled with someone terrible. The downside risk is worse than the upside risk.
...yes, yes it can.