It would be nice to know if I should get a Bronze HSA or a Gold PPO based on 1) my medical billing history for the past 1-3 years 2) my past and projected income 3) potentially, my current medical status and good projections about that.
The weird thing about ACA is it essentially turns this into a relatively low range problem; I'm going to be spending $200/mo to $400/mo in premiums, and I'm never going to be out of pocket more than $6350 on top of that. So even if I do exceptionally well, it's maybe a $200x12 - $3300x0.35 (tax savings on HSA) cost vs. a $400x12 plus epsilon cost vs. ($200x12 + $6350). Which isn't enough to really care that much, since most likely it's within $1-2k/yr regardless of which plan I pick. And I doubt your picking would be that much more accurate than a general WAG based on "do I often go to the doctor?"
The weird thing about ACA is it essentially turns this into a relatively low range problem; I'm going to be spending $200/mo to $400/mo in premiums, and I'm never going to be out of pocket more than $6350 on top of that. So even if I do exceptionally well, it's maybe a $200x12 - $3300x0.35 (tax savings on HSA) cost vs. a $400x12 plus epsilon cost vs. ($200x12 + $6350). Which isn't enough to really care that much, since most likely it's within $1-2k/yr regardless of which plan I pick. And I doubt your picking would be that much more accurate than a general WAG based on "do I often go to the doctor?"